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Dans un premier temps, le déficit du solde de la balance commerciale s'accroît, ou du moins l'excédent diminue. Lorsqu'une devise perd de la valeur, les importations du pays en question vont coûter plus cher, alors que les exportations, étant financées en devise nationale, vont rapporter moins. Cette phase de détérioration s'explique comme étant le résultat d'un « effet prix », qui est la première conséquence d'une dépréciation ou d'une dévaluation.
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